VALENCIA, 31 March 2021: A leading travel analytics firm, ForwardKeys, has developed new forecasts to chart the course of air travel recovery in the short and long term.

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted regular trends in the
air travel market, making it impossible to establish forecasts based on past
performance.

In response, ForwardKeys has developed a new
state-of-the-art forecasting model that – instead of using historical data –
draws on a range of metrics to generate forward-looking estimates for the total
air market.

As a built-in feature of the company’s travel retail
solution Traveller Statistics, ForwardKeys’ forecasts provide an outlook for
the future of air travel. The aim is to facilitate strategic decision-making at
a time when travel retailers and brands are finding it difficult to plan.

“Continual lockdowns and travel restrictions have caused
unprecedented disruption to the global air travel market, and historical data
that was previously so dependable now offers very little as a means of predicting
future trends,” says ForwardKeys director of travel retail & brands Marina
Giuliano.

“We needed to find a solution for our clients, and now with
Traveller Statistics forecasts, we have done just that. In this age of
uncertainty, our forecasts bring much-needed confidence.”

Forecasts are available in both short- and long-term form.
Short-term forecasts look up to six months ahead and are part of the Traveller
Statistics ‘Advanced Analytics’ module. Based on real travel demand and airline
capacity, they help users to foresee where the travel market is due to recover
first. In-depth insight is provided on daily and hourly passenger traffic, and
filters enable analysis by origin and destination airport, airline,
nationality, cabin class and flight type.

Long-term forecasts, found in the dedicated ‘Forecasting’
module, paint a picture of market recovery up to 10 years in advance. The
purpose-built algorithm takes into account a combination of historical trends,
aviation drivers.

Key drivers
Unserved demand for air routes
Emerging market opportunities
Available airport capacity
Aircraft orders and delivery schedules
GDP growth, since there is generally a strong correlation between GDP and outbound travel.

The forecast can be filtered by departure and destination
airport as well as by nationality.

“While our forecasts have been developed to chart the
recovery of the travel market from the current global crisis, their benefit
will long outlive the pandemic. As travel picks up and trends begin to take shape
again, the algorithm will become more accurate. Traveller Statistics forecasts
will be informing key business decisions for many years to come – in good times
and in bad,” concludes Giuliano.